In-Depth Analysis: Industry Logic Behind Container Shipping Market Shifts and Diesel Price Fluctuations

Introduction

The global logistics industry is undergoing complex transformations—container freight rates on a "roller coaster," international situations impacting supply chains, and fluctuating diesel costs. As logistics enterprises, how can we grasp trends amidst this volatility? This article provides key insights for industry partners from four dimensions: supply and demand, freight rates, the international landscape, and oil prices.

Container Shipping Market

Ice and Fire Under the Game of Supply and Demand

1. Overcapacity vs. Phased Shortages

• Supply Side: The global container ship fleet size is forecast to grow by 7.8% in 2024 (Alphaliner data), with concentrated deliveries of new vessels leading to long-term overcapacity. However, the Red Sea crisis has forced Asia-Europe routes to detour via the Cape of Good Hope, reducing vessel turnaround rates by approximately 15%, which has short-term demand.

• Demand Side: Inventory replenishment demand in Europe and the US boosted cargo volume recovery in Q1, but high inflation has suppressed consumption. The SCFI index fell by 23% in Q2, showing "pulse-like fluctuations" in the market.

2. The Logic Behind Freight Rate Volatility

• Extreme Case: Freight rates on the Shanghai-Europe route surged 250% at the start of the year, only to halve by April. Shipping lines are balancing the market through "blank sailings" (cancellation rates exceeding 10%).

• Pricing Power Struggle: The three major alliances control 80% of capacity, but the rise of shipper alliances is forcing greater freight rate transparency.

3. The Butterfly Effect of the International Situation

• Red Sea Crisis: 12% of global maritime shipping volume has been rerouted, increasing cost per container by $500 and causing insurance premiums to soar by 30%.

• Policy Impacts: The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism will cover shipping in 2026, potentially making green premiums a new cost item; the US Ocean Shipping Reform Act intensifies freight rate regulatory games.

Diesel Price Volatility

A Dual Squeeze from Geopolitics and Energy Transition

1. Recent Oil Price Trends

• Data Tracking: The domestic wholesale price of 0# diesel fell from 7,500 RMB/ton at the start of the year to 6,800 RMB/ton in June, but conflict in the Middle East caused a single-week rebound of 8% in May.

• International Transmission: Brent crude fluctuated between $75-90/barrel. OPEC+ extended production cuts until the end of 2024, countered by the US releasing 180 million barrels from its reserves.

2. Key Influencing Factors

• Geopolitical Black Swans: The Russia-Ukraine conflict has reshaped global energy flows, with India's share of re-exported Russian diesel rising to 35%; Houthi attacks on tankers increase risk premiums on Asia-Europe routes.

• Domestic Pricing Mechanism: Under the "crude oil cost method + taxes" model, compressed refinery profits are forcing the narrowing of the wholesale-retail price spread, limiting logistics companies' bargaining power.

3. Long-term Transition Pressure

• New Energy Substitution: The EU will ban sales of new fossil fuel cars by 2035, China's heavy-duty truck electrification rate exceeds 5%, and the cost advantage of LNG heavy-duty trucks is becoming apparent (saving 0.3 RMB per kilometer).

• Corporate Response Strategies: Leading logistics companies are locking in over 60% of their fuel costs through "fuel price-freight rate linkage clauses" and "futures hedging."