Analysis of the Export Container Shipping Market and Freight Rates
I. Freight Index
The composite freight index continues its upward trend, reflecting sustained market strength.
II. International Markets
The container shipping market maintains a positive trajectory. Positive news regarding the easing of "tariff wars" continues to support the market, with freight rates on most routes rising significantly, driving the composite index higher.
European Routes: Transport demand remains stable. Supported by positive news, spot market booking prices have increased.
North American Routes: "Front-loading exports" continue to keep transport demand at high levels. Overall vessel capacity has largely returned to pre-"tariff war" levels, but space remains tight, with some port congestion occurring. Market freight rates have risen sharply.
Persian Gulf Routes: Transport demand continues its positive trend, with healthy supply-demand dynamics. Freight rates increased considerably this week.
Australia-New Zealand Routes: Market conditions are weaker compared to other routes. Local demand for various goods lacks further growth momentum, leading to a slight decrease in freight rates.
South American Routes: Transport demand is growing steadily, leading to rising spot market freight rates.
III. Qingdao Port Overview
Southeast Asia Market
Indonesia routes have been relatively stable. A slight rate increase is expected in June; advance booking communication is recommended.
Thailand, Singapore/Malaysia, Philippines, and Vietnam routes are experiencing unstable cargo reception recently. Carriers are encouraging bookings.
Indian Subcontinent Market
There are 3-4 direct sailings per month. Schedules are unstable due to factors like relay vessel delays. Similar to the Persian Gulf, these routes are consistently experiencing overbooking and rate increases. Plan shipments early.
Special Note: As some container owners are routing cargo via Mundra for transshipment to the Red Sea, Red Sea cargo is prioritized, which may affect the acceptance of Mundra-bound cargo to some extent.
Persian Gulf Market
There are normally 7 weekly direct services from Qingdao to Jebel Ali (Dubai) and 4 to Dammam, but with relatively smaller vessel capacities. Like the Indian Subcontinent, these routes are experiencing overbooking and rate increases. One sailing is cancelled in June, leading to expected price hikes and tight space.
Red Sea Market
There are normally 4 weekly direct services from Qingdao to Jeddah (Saudi Arabia) and 3 to Sokhna/Aqaba. Rates are expected to hold steady or increase this month.
European Market
Vessels are being shifted from European to US routes, reducing capacity on European routes and causing freight rates to climb sharply. The market is experiencing a shipment surge, with very tight space. A slight upward trend is expected into the second week. Due to uncertainty around US tariffs, the future rate trajectory is unclear. The current market boom is initially expected to last until late June/early July. Carriers are still announcing June rate increases; the specific amount remains to be seen. Plan shipments well in advance.
Central & South America Market
Rates are expected to continue rising until mid-June. Most major carriers are currently overbooked. While some smaller carriers occasionally have space, major lines are fully booked for the first week of June. Significant rate hikes may dampen demand, especially after the second week of June, potentially moderating further increases. Some carriers are re-deploying vessels from Latin America to the US. The market is expected to remain very active until the end of June. Overweight containers are facing severe overbooking and rollover issues.
South Africa Market
Sailings are infrequent, and rates are relatively stable, but prepare for potential price increases later in the month.
East Africa Market
There are normally 3 weekly direct services from Qingdao to Mombasa.
There is normally 1 weekly direct service from Qingdao to Dar es Salaam. Space has been tight and rates rising since April. Plan shipments early.
West Africa Market
There are normally 2 weekly direct services from Qingdao to Apapa and 3 to Tema. Space is tight, and rates are rising.
Mediterranean & North Africa Market
The announced June GRI has quickly led to tight space. Carriers are implementing space control, which will intensify rollovers and space shortages in the coming weeks. The overall market trend remains upward. Ports like Piraeus, Genoa, and Valencia are also facing destination congestion, causing schedule delays. Early planning is advised.
USA & Canada Market
With the 90-day tariff suspension period ending on July 9th and tariff exemptions on Chinese goods ending on August 11th, volumes to the US West Coast are expected to peak again before the end of June, as shippers aim to ship ahead of potential tariff increases. Current demand is strong, with a surge in cargo volumes expected to continue and even grow through June. Shippers are advised to book well in advance.
Australia-New Zealand Market
There is consistent long-term demand. Sailing schedules are stable, prices are relatively stable, and space is generally sufficient.
South Korea Market
Incheon direct services: Limited vessel capacity and infrequent sailings. Rate increases are expected.
Busan/Gwangyang services: Overall stable schedules. Rates and space are expected to remain stable for a while without overbooking or price surges.
China Taiwan / Hong Kong / Macau Market
Taiwan routes: Consistently experiencing overbooking.
Hong Kong/Macau routes: Freight rates are relatively unchanged, and sailing schedules are stable.
