Analysis of the Export Container Shipping Market and Freight Rates
一、运价指数
Part 2: International Market
Demand in China's export container shipping market has weakened, showing an overall decline compared to the same period in previous years. Freight rates on deep-sea routes continue to adjust, with the composite index falling further.
European/Mediterranean Routes: Weak supply and demand fundamentals have led to a decline in spot market freight rates.
North American Routes: Demand remains sluggish, with spot booking prices continuing to fall.
Persian Gulf Routes: Market performance is weak, with spot booking prices seeing another significant drop.
Australia-New Zealand Routes: Overall demand is stable, but booking prices have decreased.
South American Routes: Lackluster growth in transport demand has resulted in lower spot booking prices.
Part 3: Qingdao Port Market Dynamics
Southeast Asia Market
Singapore/Malaysia/Thailand/Vietnam/Philippines Routes: Rates for Singapore, Port Klang, Penang, Bangkok, Laem Chabang, Haiphong, Ho Chi Minh City, Cebu, and Manila remain stable around the National Day holiday. Space is largely fully booked until early September, with little change in rates expected before mid-September. Early rate locking and booking are advised.
Indonesia Routes: Recent rate increases at the start of the month led to overbooking. Confirm space and rates early if you have shipment plans.
South Korea Market
Incheon Direct Services: Limited vessel capacity and infrequent sailings keep prices firm, continuing the pre-National Day trend of tight space and rising rates.
Busan/Gwangyang, Pyeongtaek, Ulsan Services: Overall schedules are stable. Rates have recovered somewhat compared to August, with a moderate increase in space and prices before the holiday. Limited spot space was available as of Monday, September 22nd, expected to fill up this week. Booking post-holiday sailings in advance is recommended, as rates are expected to dip slightly afterwards.
China Taiwan / Hong Kong / Macau Market
Taiwan Routes: The market is relatively unchanged. Book space within the current week. Carriers are maintaining rates from mid-September through month-end without further adjustments.
Hong Kong/Macau Routes: There will be sailings suspended during the National Day period. Rates are fairly stable, and schedules are generally reliable.
Indian Subcontinent Market
Pakistan/India Routes: Nhava Sheva has 8 weekly sailings; India's East Coast has 2-3 direct services. Cargo volume has decreased, causing a significant drop in rates, with transshipment rates even falling below $1000. However, some direct vessels are nearly full. If ESL's direct service on October 15th is cancelled, rates on these routes may increase post-holiday, pending market confirmation.
Special Note: As some container owners route cargo via Mundra for transshipment to the Red Sea, Red Sea cargo gets loading priority, which may affect acceptance of Mundra-bound cargo.
Persian Gulf Market
Qingdao to Jebel Ali (Dubai): Normally 9 weekly direct services. Cargo volume has decreased, and rates have fallen, contrary to earlier expectations of increases. The post-holiday market outlook is pessimistic unless there are cancellations or capacity reductions.
Qingdao to Dammam: 4 weekly direct services are operating normally. Cargo volume is down, and rates have decreased, similar to the Dubai route, without the expected pre-holiday increase.
Red Sea Market
Qingdao to Jeddah (Saudi Arabia): Normally 4 weekly direct services. To Sokhna/Aqaba: normally 3 weekly direct services, supplemented by extra loaders and carrier-owned vessels. Market capacity has increased, cargo volume is steady, and rates have been adjusted downwards.
Australia-New Zealand Market
After a round of rate increases before mid-September, rates have stabilized. Carriers and agents are slightly reducing rates to attract cargo for the holiday period. This aligns with expectations. Post-holiday space and rates are forecast to remain largely stable. Consider locking in rates and booking early.
Central & South America Market
South America West Coast: Repeated rate declines have pushed ocean freight to what appears to be the bottom; current rates are the lowest in recent months. No rate increases are planned before mid-October.
South America East Coast: Rates have continued to fall since late September. Potential for cancelled sailings and rolled cargo exists; plan shipments accordingly. Due to consecutive port omissions by Maersk's direct service, a rate hike in October cannot be ruled out.
Caribbean Routes: The market saw slight rate cuts before the holiday to build cargo. Additional vessel calls are scheduled for late September and early October, leading to sufficient space. Carriers face pressure to fill ships, offering good policies for large volumes, but beware of potential cargo rollovers. Post-holiday rates for the Caribbean are expected to decrease slightly, but not significantly. Early rate locking and booking are recommended.
European Market
Capacity on European routes was ample in September. Carriers aggressively pursued cargo to build volumes before the National Day holiday. In the slack season post-holiday, rates are expected to fall further unless significant blank sailings are implemented. Container ship overcapacity, particularly concentrated on the Asia-Europe trade lane, is a issue. This will be a long-term challenge as more new vessels are delivered. Carriers need to actively manage capacity and implement defensive rate increases to stop the decline.
USA & Canada Market
Overall capacity was sufficient in September. Carriers actively sought more cargo to ensure load factors, but demand couldn't meet expectations, making a significant post-holiday recovery unlikely.
US East Coast: Market softened due to decreased demand from India following tariff escalations. The direction of rates in October is uncertain.
US West Coast: The market continues its downward trend due to persistent oversupply in the Transpacific Eastbound trade lane.
Mediterranean & North Africa Market
Rates for West and East Mediterranean routes showed a slight downward trend in September. Cargo volumes remain lacking and are not expected to grow significantly. Some new entrants on these routes have stopped accepting cargo. Severe congestion persists in the South Mediterranean (Piraeus, Genoa, Valencia), with vessel delays of 3-6 days.
South Africa Market
Qingdao to Durban & Cape Town: There are 2 weekly direct services in total. Space is tight, and freight rates are rising.
East Africa Market
Qingdao to Mombasa: There are 2-3 weekly direct services. Market cargo volume and space availability are well-matched, leading to minimal rate fluctuations. Nonetheless, plan shipments in advance.
Qingdao to Dar es Salaam: There is 1 weekly direct service. Space is tight, with little rate movement. Carriers slightly reduced rates before the holiday to build cargo. Post-holiday rates are expected to remain stable or see a slight increase.
West Africa Market
Qingdao to Apapa: There are 2 weekly direct services. Cargo volume has decreased, leading to lower rates.
Qingdao to Tema: There are 3 weekly direct services. Space has eased and cargo volume has decreased, resulting in lower rates.
